Everyday Murders in the nation Decline Thirty-Seven Percent During President Sheinbaum, According to Government Statistics

The typical count of everyday homicides each month in the country has fallen by more than a third since President Claudia Sheinbaum took office, according to fresh administrative figures. But, public safety experts have advised that murder data may not signal better countrywide security.

Significant Decline in Daily Averages

There was an average of close to 55 murders a day in November compared with nearly 87 when Sheinbaum began the presidency in the previous September. This announcement was provided by the head of the nation's national safety system, Marcela Figueroa Franco, during the president’s regular news conference on a recent Tuesday.

“The outcome in murders that we have seen in these months is extremely important,” Claudia Sheinbaum stated, noting that in November the smallest figure of murders were registered for any November in the last decade.

Historical Background and Official Strategy

Intense organized crime internal conflicts, alongside the administration's heavily militarised campaigns to combat the trafficking organizations, have made Mexico’s homicide numbers escalate in the past few years. The figure peaked at a peak of 36,773 killings in 2020, as reported by the country’s official data office.

That gave Mexico a homicide figure more than four times greater than that of the United States. However, homicides have been on the decline, dropping to 33,550 the previous year. The President has attributed her public safety plan for an ostensibly steeper decline in homicides in the current year.

At a media briefing in August, the head of state declared: “There is a plan, there is oversight of the plan, and we have specific tracking locality by locality in certain cases. The strategy functions. And we have to continue working at it each day.”

The key elements of Sheinbaum’s safety plan encompass:

• Bolstering Mexico’s federal guard.
• Improving intelligence and investigation capabilities.
• Greater coordination between government agencies.

Expert Caution and Statistical Concerns

However, public safety researchers urged caution that focusing solely on murder statistics to assess the situation of pacification was problematic. This is especially true given the rise in different crimes such as people going missing.

“That would be excellent information if this were a reduction, but I think we must not just look at the homicide numbers and think: ‘Oh well, good,’” commented Cecilia Farfán-Méndez, an expert on Mexico's organised crime. “I would be tentatively hopeful.”

Per the public policy research organization Mexico Evalúa, homicides overall fell by over 20% in the initial 10 months of this year versus the identical timeframe the previous year. But, disappearances have risen by 15% and in some states have risen by up to 200%.

“Numbers on homicides is not valid for gauging the reality of violence,” argued Armando Vargas, a security expert at Mexico Evalúa. “First, we have police and investigators who do not have the resources or the inclination to properly recognize and categorize remains. Second, organised [criminals] … have the means to hide violent acts through disappearances.”

Vargas added that using monthly means of daily homicides was additionally problematic because it could obscure days when there were notably high numbers of killings.

“Employing the daily mean renders surges of violence less visible,” he concluded.

Detentions and Confiscations as Metrics of Success

Where the government can point to the success of its safety plan is on arrests and confiscations. Close to 40,000 individuals were apprehended between last October and this past November for high-impact offenses, according to government figures. More than 20,000 firearms were taken and 311 tonnes of drugs seized.

“The former US president cannot claim President Sheinbaum of not acting, because the reality is she is doing a lot with these many thousands of detentions, thousands of confiscations, and all the operational degrading of organised crime. It’s very in political terms beneficial,” said Vargas.

Ongoing Unrest and Public Frustration

However despite these measures, Mexico is still grappling with high violence, with a number of regions in the grip of cartel-fueled violence. Recently there was a prominent murder of a popular mayor in the state of Michoacan, among 10 local leaders assassinated in the last 12 months.

Weeks after, many thousands of youth protested in the capital and throughout the nation to voice their outrage at corruption and cartel violence.

“The administration frames [data] in a manner to create a picture of improvement. From a political standpoint it’s highly effective, from a social perspective it’s extremely questionable,” Vargas said.