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At first, Donald Trump seemed to take a firm position regarding Ukraine. Following delivering statements of "severe repercussions" in August if Putin carried on obstructing ceasefire talks, the former president eventually introduced substantial restrictions on the Russian two largest petroleum corporations, Rosneft and Lukoil. This move significantly impacted Putin's capability to finance his military invasion in Ukraine.

However, via his latest detailed peace initiative for the conflict, which was drafted by US and Russian representatives lacking Ukrainian or European participation, Trump has seemingly gone back to his pro-Putin stance.

Favoring Invasion

Trump's proposal would essentially favor the Russian leader for invading Ukraine while placing Ukraine's democracy in jeopardy. Although strong proclamations that "The nation's sovereignty will be upheld", much of the plan actually undermine that same autonomy. What represents a Moscow's wish would certainly be a Ukrainian nightmare.

Reflecting his corporate experience, Trump continues to consider the situation in Ukraine as a mere territorial dispute, as if giving Russia a section of Ukrainian territory will appease the ruler. But, Putin's invasion is not merely about occupying a destroyed region of deindustrialized area in Ukraine's east. Rather, it is about Ukraine's democracy – and Putin's clear intention to destroy it so it no longer acts as an attractive model for the Russia's population of the responsible leadership that Putin's increasing autocracy denies them.

Territorial Surrenders

While keeping in place the presently split oblasts of Zaporizhzhia and Kherson, Trump's proposal would require the nation to surrender the entire this eastern territory. Aside from benefiting the Russian Federation with territory that its troops have been unsuccessful to capture in more than a lengthy period of fighting, this surrender would make Ukrainian military defenses severely weakened.

This region is the location of the nation's much-vaunted "fortress belt", the fortified defensive positions that constitute a essential impediment to invading forces. The proposal would have the Ukrainian military surrender these defenses, leaving Russian forces a clear way to Kyiv should he eventually choose to renew the war.

Defense Restrictions

Furthermore, in a action that would enable renewed hostilities easier for Russia, Trump would require the nation to reduce the size of its troops from their present 800,000 to 850,000 troops to a maximum of 600,000. Significantly, the initiative imposes no such limits on the invading army.

Seemingly as a accommodation to Russia's attempts to portray Ukraine's chosen by the people leadership as extremists, the plan states: "All radical doctrine and activities must be condemned and forbidden." Apparently to underscore this point, it requires that "The nation will hold democratic votes in three months" of a peace deal. Meanwhile, Trump imposes no condition that the Russian leader jeopardize his dictatorship by allowing votes in his own country.

Defense Guarantees

To be sure, the plan makes Russia commit not to "enter other states" and to "incorporate in legislation its position of peaceful relations towards Europe and the Ukrainian people". Yet given that Putin has violated similar treaties in the previous instances – for example the 1994 agreement, in which Russia promised to honor the nation's sovereignty in exchange for relinquishing its historical nuclear arsenal, and the 2014-2015 Minsk agreements, in which Moscow promised to a ceasefire and a return of captured territory in the Donbas to Kyiv – how should anyone believe this commitment this time?

That is why Ukraine has been so insistent on western protection assurances. Although the plan threatens a "decisive joint defense action" if Russia resume its aggression, and states that "The nation will receive strong protection assurances", the particulars vary from fuzzy to concerning. The plan would not just deny the nation Nato membership but also prohibit member states from deploying troops on the nation's land, thereby preventing the peacekeeping contingent, likely led by Britain and France, on which the Ukrainian government had been relying to prevent Putin from restoring his diminished forces, rearming, and attacking again.

International Response

Another side agreement reportedly would grant the nation with a alliance-like protection assurance, in which any later "major, planned, and ongoing aggression" by the Russian Federation on the country "will be treated as an act of war threatening the tranquility of the transatlantic community." This indicates a defense action. However different from a capable Ukrainian military – the nation's best deterrent against renewed invasion – the credibility of the supplementary deal would rely on the dedication of alliance members, including Trump, to respond militarily to Putin's attacks, a response they have {not